International Focus

International Trade

n    Trade between people and businesses who operate in different countries.

n    Exports – goods produced here and sold to people/firms in other countries

n    Imports – goods produced in foreign countries and sold to people/firms here

International Trade

n     Trade deficit – imports exceed exports.

n     Outcome:

n    we end up with more satisfying goods than they do

n    they end up with unspent dollars

n     What do they do with those dollars?

n    they save them in banks

n    banks then loan them to borrowers who want to buy assets priced in dollars

Accounting for International Trade

n      Current account:

n     primarily follows trade

n     US has a current account deficit

n     A net $ outflow

n      Capital account:

n     primarily follows asset purchases and sales

n     US has a capital account surplus

n     A net $ inflow

n      International trade brings foreign-made goods to the US and generates foreign investment in US assets

n      Balance of Payments: $ outflow = $ inflow

Specialization and Trade

n    Country A has the comparative advantage over Country B if:

n    Country A can produce a good at a lower opportunity cost than country B can.

n    A should specialize in that good and B should become A’s customer.

Specialization and Trade

n    This is true for individuals, too:

n    Alice has the comparative advantage over Betty if:

n    Alice can produce a good at a lower opportunity cost than Betty can.

n    Alice should specialize in that good and Betty should become Alice’s customer.

Specialization and Trade

n    People in countries that specialize and trade have:

n    expertise in production

n    efficiency in resource use

n    a wider choice of goods

n    goods at lower prices

n    a higher standard of living

How does international trade begin?

n     Firms in country A produce a good,  but at a high opportunity cost.

n    It is sold domestically at a high price, PA.

How does international trade begin?

n     A firm in country B  produce that same good but at a lower opportunity cost.

n    They enter country A’s market, and…

n    They sell the good at a lower price, PB.

How does international trade begin?

n     Supply for the good in country A shifts right and prices fall.

n    The firms from B gain sales: A’s imports (1).

n    Home firms from A lose sales (2); some from A quit business.

n    Customers in A buy more at lower prices.

What is the Outcome of Free International Trade?

n      In each country, high cost, internationally noncompetitive firms lose sales.

n     cut back on production or go out of business

n     lay off workers; destroy jobs

n      In each country, low cost, internationally competitive firms gain sales.

n     expand production

n     hire more workers; create jobs

n      Increased international trade requires expansion of the transportation industry.

n     create jobs in transportation

What is the Outcome of Free International Trade?

n      Lower cost foreign firms take sales away from high cost US firms in America.

n     American jobs are lost.

n     Foreign jobs are created.

n      Lower cost US firms take sales away from high cost foreign firms in their country.

n     Foreign jobs are lost.

n     US jobs are created.

n      Goods are shipped from one country to the other.

n     Transport jobs are created.

n      In both countries, there is a net job increase.

What is the Outcome of Free International Trade?

n     In each country, consumers are better off:

n    they pay less for goods

n    they have a wider variety to choose from

n    their income can buy more goods

n    their standard of living goes up

n     In each country, resources are more efficiently used by specialists

n    more is produced from the same consumption of resources

Protection Policy

n    Domestic high cost, noncompetitive industries seek protection from government from foreign competition.

n    They are afraid of:

n    Loss of jobs

n    Loss of sales

n    Going out of business

 

Protection Policy

n    Government imposes tariffs or quotas in imported goods.

n    tariff – a tax on each imported good

n    quota – a restriction on the number of goods that can be imported

Results of Protection Policy

n    In both countries:

n    High cost, inefficient firms win.

n    Low cost, inefficient firms lose.

n    Consumers lose.

n    Export firms lose sales.

n    There is a net job loss.

n    In both countries, standard of living falls.

Excuses to Protect

n    National defense argument.

n    Infant industry argument.

n    Antidumping argument.

n    Foreign subsidy argument.

n    Low wages argument.

n    Saving domestic jobs argument.

Foreign Exchange

n    International commerce requires two transactions:

n    The exchange of goods for money, and…

n    The exchange of one currency for another.

Foreign Exchange Market

n    European sellers of imports to US and US travelers to Europe have a:

n    supply of dollars.

n    demand for euros.

n    US sellers of exports to Europe and European travelers to US have a:

n    supply of euros.

n    demand for dollars.

 

 

The foreign exchange market

n     The market for the Euro:

n     S: supply of Euros

n     D: demand for Euros

n     P1: the price of one Euro in terms of dollars

n     Q1: the total number of Euros that will be bought and sold

The foreign exchange market

n     The market for the Euro:

n     An increase in demand for the Euro increases its price in dollars

n     The Euro appreciates and the dollar depreciates

The foreign exchange market

n     The market for the Euro:

n     An decrease in demand for the Euro decreases its price in dollars

n     The dollar appreciates and the Euro depreciates

Foreign Exchange Market

n     Start: $1.30 = 1 Euro or $1.00 = 0.77 Euro

n     If dollar price of Euros falls:

n    $1.20 = 1 Euro

n    then, $1.00 = 0.833 Euro

n    the Euro price of a dollar rises.

n     If dollar price of Euros rises:

n    $1.40 = 1 Euro

n    then, $1.00 = 0.714 Euro

n    the Euro price of a dollar falls.

 

Flexible Exchange Rate System

n    Exchange rates change daily as the demand for a currency or the supply of a currency changes.

n    Exchange rates must always be reciprocals of each other.

n    Exchange rates of multiple currencies must always be compatible.

n    Or, arbitrageurs will enter the market and cause them to be compatible.

Macro Events and Exchange Rates

n    US Economic Growth?

n    US Incomes rise.

n    Demand for imports increase.

n    Demand for Euros increases.

n    Dollar price of the Euro rises.

n    Dollar depreciates against the Euro.

n    Vice Versa applies.

 

 

Macro Events and Exchange Rates

n    US has high inflation?

n    US goods prices rise.

n    Consumers substitute foreign goods.

n    Demand for imports increase.

n    Demand for Euros increases.

n    Dollar price of the Euro rises.

n    Dollar depreciates against the Euro.

n    Vice Versa applies.

 

 

Macro Events and Exchange Rates

n    US has high interest rates?

n    Europeans want to invest in US.

n    Demand for dollars increases.

n    Euro price of the dollar rises.

n    Dollar price of the Euro falls.

n    Dollar appreciates against the Euro.

n    Vice Versa applies.

 

 

Fixed Exchange Rates

n    Each country’s central bank controls its exchange rate at a fixed level.

n    Shortage of dollars?

n   Fed buys Euros or gold for dollars, or

n   Dollar is revalued to a new fixed rate.

n    Surplus of dollars?

n   Fed sells Euros or gold for dollars, or

n   Dollar is devalued to a new fixed rate.

Fixed Exchange Rates

n    Devaluations are hard on people living in the country

n    Their money is suddenly less valuable.

n    Their savings are less valuable.

n    Everything imported suddenly is higher priced. Domestic prices rise, too.

n   Inflation is worse.

n    The central bank has a finite supply of Euros or gold to maintain the fixed rate.

Fixed or floating?

n    Gold standard

n    Breton Woods Agreement

n    Floating the dollar

Other currency arrangements

n     One area decides to use the same currency:

n    USA

n    The Euro area

n     A country adopts another country’s currency:

n    Panama and Ecuador use the US $

n    Albania uses the Euro.

n     A country pegs its currency to a major currency:

n    French-speaking Africa pegs to the Euro.

 

 

Globalization

n    Since 1990 end of the Cold War, international trade has expanded significantly.

n    Markets for goods and services have become worldwide.

n    Markets for labor also have become worldwide.

n   Outsourcing

n   Immigration, legal and illegal.

Outsourcing and the US

n    Foreign businesses have outsourced more jobs to the US than US business have outsourced abroad!

n    Why do we only hear about job loss in the US due to outsourcing?